Sunday Service Play Thread 09/26/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[Yankees5560]

Hitman

ATL +3.5 -120. Double Dime Bet

 

[Yankees5560]

Hitman

6 pt teaser TB 7.5/ minny 7.5. Double dime bet

Miami dolphins +5 double dime bet

atl falcons +3.5 double dime bet

 

[Jk1989]

Gianni the Greek
D% Dallas Cowboys -4

 

[Yankees5560]

Hitman

GB +3.5 20
Ov GB 47.5
Bears +7.5

 

[JohnnyMoss]

Marco D Angelo top 2 team teaser
D% Carolina -1.5
Cleveland -1.5

 

[dough]

Essler

E% NFC GOY


TBay +1

 

[Yankees5560]

Hitman

ov Buffalo 44.5 double dime

 

[BarnHard]

Andy Lang E% teaser:
Play Rating: E%
Play: Cardinals from -7.5 to -1.5 v Jaguars….Titans from -5.5 to +.5 v Colts

 

[ryangenero]

Football Jesus FREE PICK is Tampa Bay , free football picks 30-11

 

[LeopoldsS]

Anybody have Hitmans 8th play? Tia

 

[Yankees5560]

Hitman

6 pt teas Car/Balt

 

[LeopoldsS]

Thanks Yankees5560

 

[jjmcg4737]

Anybody have Victor Kings: NFL Week Three BEST BET: King Creole’s 4*** OVER of the MONTH!

Thank you in advance!

Andy Iskoe is on LA Rams +1.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Docs

f-49ers-3.5
d-ne-3
c-over-50-bal-det
c-denver-10.5

 

[BuzzKill]

BTC SPORT

Pats on Parade
Game: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sep 26 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: New England Patriots -3.0 (-110)
I wanted to get this one out early because I think this might climb above 3 during the week and I want to get the best of the number. At the time of posting, there's a -3 (EV) at the Westgate Superbook; -3 (-106) at FanDuel and a couple stray -2.5's with increased juice at Barstool and Caesars.
This will be the third road game to start the season for the Saints after opening in Jacksonville then Carolina. The Patriots are 167-18 under Bill Belichick (2000-present) when they have a positive turnover differential, and they're going to be playing one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league in Jameis Winston. How much can New Orleans get corrected this week? They were missing nine starters in Sunday's loss to Carolina, they were missing eight assistant coaches because of Covid tracing and they haven't been in their home facility in three weeks. How much are they going to be able to get corrected in six days? Winston was sacked four times and threw two interceptions. If an unacclaimed Carolina defense was able to do that to the undermanned Saints, what's a Belichick-led defense going to do?
Yes, Mac Jones and the Patriots offense has been pretty boring thus far. But after seeing what's going on with Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, I think the Patriots deserve the benefit of the doubt in how they're handling him. Starting right tackle Trent Brown is expected to return this week. Nick Folk has hit 33-consecutive field goals. The Patriots are the definition of stability in the NFL, and they're welcoming in a Saints team that's (literally) all over the place right now. Lay the small number with New England.

Colts Crumble Continues
Game: (471) Indianapolis Colts at (472) Tennessee Titans
Date/Time: Sep 26 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Tennessee Titans -5.0 (-115)
The Carson Wentz experiment continues to be a mess. He injured both ankles and failed to complete last week's game against the Rams. Even if a fully-healthy Wentz does show up in Nashville on Sunday (doubtful), he's lost his last six starts. Wentz's strength has always been his ability to extend plays and use his athleticism. He's now playing behind a shabby offensive line with two injured ankles. I just don't see it. Indianapolis opened with back-to-back home games in their dome with turf. Now, you're taking them out to the natural elements for their first road game.
Wentz was pressured on 17 of his 39 drop-backs last week against the Rams. Quenton Nelson is only six weeks removed from foot surgery. Eric Fisher made his return from Achilles surgery last week. These guys have been limited in practice during the preseason, and it's certainly showed in the first two games of the regular season.
I won't sugarcoat the Tennessee defense. There are issues there. They stank last year, and they don't appear to be much better this year. But this should be a major drop in class after facing the Cardinals and Seahawks in the first two games. The Colts are generating 5.1 yards per play (23rd in the league) on 4.0 yards per rush (18th) and 6.3 yards per pass attempt (22nd). And again, both of their first two games were at home.
Digging into Tennessee's box score a little bit, the Titans should have beaten Seattle a little more comfortably on Sunday. Tennessee earned 13 more first downs with a 53-percent success rate on offense. Ryan Tannehill developed some chemistry with Julio Jones (how was that touchdown called back?!?!) last week, which is a very encouraging sign for the Titans' offense. I'm comfortable with laying the -5/5.5 with Tennessee at home over their AFC South rival.

 

[BuzzKill]

SportsLine Projection Model

Bengals at Steelers | 9/26 | 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Against The Spread
Pick: Steelers -4.5
Pittsburgh covers in 52 percent of simulations

Over-Under
Pick: Over 44
The Over hits in 61 percent of simulations

Projected Final Score: Steelers 28, Bengals 22

 

[BuzzKill]

Andy Lang

E% teaser (WagerTalk):
Play Rating: E%
Play: Cardinals from -7.5 to -1.5 v Jaguars….Titans from -5.5 to + .5 v Colts
Arizona Cardinals Teased:
The Arizona Cardinals are 2-0 after a hard-fought victory over Minnesota and have shown they are a complete team with the ability to win a close game. The Cardinals offense has been impressive to say the least, Kyler Murray has thrown for 689 yards with 7 touchdowns while also running for a touchdown in each of his first two games. Murray has plenty of weapons surrounding him with wide receiver stud DeAndre Hopkins including rookie standout Rondale Moore as well as Christian Kirk and Chase Edmunds. Arizona's defense did take a step back after a dominating performance in Week 1, however, the Jaguars don't have anywhere near the weapons or experience that Minnesota has. Chandler Jones had 5 sacks in Week 1 and speaking of defense there is a great chance that Jones could become a permanent fixture in Trevor Lawrence's nightmares after this week. If the Jags double Jones Arizona's front 7 has other options to keep them honest, such as J.J. Watt, Isaiah Simmons, and Zaven Collins.
Cardinals are also 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road contests and we are just asking for a win this week. Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville Jaguars have been what you would expect from a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach, which is unfortunate for them. The Jags are off to a 0-2 start and the Broncos held their offense to a paltry 189 yards while the Jaguar's defense allowed 398 yards. The Jaguar's leading rusher is James Robinson with only 72 yards and while Marvin Jones Jr. can be a solid contributor, he's not exactly who you want as your number 1 receiver. Lawrence showed some flashes in Week 1 but regressed and struggled against Denver, and after their first drive, they were unable to score a TD outside of kickoff return for a touchdown.
On defense Myles Jack may be able to keep Murray's rushing ability " somewhat" in check, however that will just expose a woeful secondary and Murray will shred them through the air as the Jaguars have allowed the 6th most yards in the NFL. The Jags are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 home games and have lost 17 straight games outright with all of those losses being by 2 or more points. Pro Football focus grades the Jags offense as worst in the NFL this season, and their defense as third-worst in the NFL whereas Arizona is graded as the 14th best in defense and the 7th best in the offense. Simply put Jacksonville does not have the weapons or talent to keep up with this high-flying Cardinals team, so we fully expect Arizona to easily come out of this game with a victory.
Tennessee Titans Teased:
To say Colt's season hasn’t started off well would be an understatement. Seattle came into Indy and had their way with Colts on offense and defense. Wilson torched them through the air, and on the ground, they ran 27 times for 140 yards. Wentz was under constant pressure behind an injured offensive line, mistakes were made in pass coverage leading to the big play, mistakes were made on the offensive line, and Wentz ended the game with a 28.4 QBR, and the Colts never were really in the game. Next game against the Rams, Colt's sloppy play continued as the offense failed to score on drives deep inside the Rams territory including a shovel pass from Wentz to the wrong team inside the 5-yard line. The offensive line struggled again, and the pressure eventually got to Wentz enough causing an injury to both ankles. On defense, the Colts again gave up long passes and gave up over 100 rushing yards to the Rams who aren’t really a rushing team. One of the Colt's touchdowns was a fumbled punt attempt by the Rams, but outside that, they only had one offensive touchdown.
The Carson Wentz injury is a big storyline, but I’m not really sure there’s a difference between Wentz on two sprained ankles or backup Jacob Eason. Rookie Sam Ehlinger was looking good in preseason, and Eason hadn’t beaten him out before Ehlinger sprained his knee, so Eason does not have a lot of upside or promise. It tough spot to come in at the end of the game on Sunday against the Rams, but he threw an interception to help seal the game for the Rams. Wentz has been mistake-prone on healthy ankles, and with the injuries to him and the struggles to the offensive line (Quenton Nelson foot surgery, Eric Fisher returning quick from an Achilles injury, Braden smith foot injury) the outlook does not look good for the Colts offense.
Week 1 can be a week where teams severely under or over-perform, and the Titans performance in Week 1 looked troublesome but could be an instance of underperforming what they are capable of, but the Titans came into the season with very little practice in the offseason due to COVID issues, so rust could have played a big part in that loss. Week 2 looked different as they fell behind, but gutted out a big second half from Derrick Henry to win on the road in Seattle. Tannehill played solid, and the Titans got back to their running ways which bode well for Sunday’s game against Indianapolis.
Derrick Henry has dominated the Colts, and based on the Colts defense the last two games, there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. In his last four games against Indy, Henry has rushed 87 times for 512 yards and 5 touchdowns averaging 5.8 yards a carry. Tannehill has also been good against the Colts. As a Titan, he’s played them four times and thrown 6 TD’s and 0 interceptions and has won two out of the last three meetings. The big concern for Tennessee would be their defense as they’ve allowed 30+ points in both games this season, but that was against healthy Arizona and Seattle teams. Arizona is second in yards per game and Seattle is 12th while Indy is 20th. Arizona is averaging 36 points a game, Seattle 29, and Indy 20 points, so this offense is going to be a step down for Tennessee’s defense.
Both the Cardinals and Titans have enough advantages to win outright, and in strong enough fashion to make this a 5% play.

 

[BuzzKill]

Jeff Hochman (JH Sportsline)

D* NFL Premium Play

Vikings +1.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Teddy Covers

Game: (479) Los Angeles Chargers at (480) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sep 26 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: E units
Play: Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 (-110)
E% Big Ticket: Take the LA Chargers (#479)
NOTE: There’s NO URGENCY to bet this – there's a chance that we'll see +7's before kickoff. Even if we don’t, I'm NEVER going to encourage anyone to buy points in a game where the dog is live to win outright.
It’s not hard to make a case for the Chiefs as being a dramatically overvalued commodity right now, even with the best QB in the NFL. KC is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 ballgames dating back to last year with one of the two covers coming by a half point; consistently overvalued in the betting marketplace. The Chiefs struggled at home in their opener, lucky to rally back and escape with a non-covering win against Cleveland. It was a similar story last week -the Chiefs got gifted a pair of early interceptions (one returned for a TD, the other preventing a red zone scoring chance) and still lost the game in SU fashion as a favorite.
Through two games, the Chiefs defense is allowing 7.6 yards per play and whopping six yards per rush. No other team in the league is close to those dismal numbers. Teams that can’t get fourth quarter stops can’t lay prices as a favorite, plain and simple. KC struggled to run the football Week 1 and lost in Baltimore last Sunday Night because of a late game fumble. Teams that can’t run the football effectively during crunch time can’t lay prices as favorites, plain and simple.
This is VERY much a statement game for the road underdog that has struggled to win tight games in recent seasons, but doesn’t lose many games by margin in the Justin Herbert era. They’ve won their last three road games in SU fashion dating back to last year, including hanging 38 on the Chiefs in their win at Arrowhead last year. Brandon Staley’s defensive gameplan with the Rams gave KC fits for 3+ quarters in Super Bowl LIII, and this defense just showed us last week that they can slow down a high octane offense, holding the Cowboys to 17 points. And while LA’s offense has had some red zone issues early, make no mistake about it – this team has elite weapons and a quality QB too, primed to put up touchdowns in bunches.
LA has won on this field twice in the last three meetings here; KC has won at home by a TD or more only six times in their last 16 regular season home games. I want the Chargers off a tough loss in a game they should have won, had every break not gone against them. KC off a loss? Moneylosers over the last four seasons; as always, a team that is struggling to build and hold margins. This has all the makings of a one score game late. Big Ticket: Take the Chargers
Line Parameter: 5% at +5 or higher, 4% at +4.5 or lower

Game: (481) Atlanta Falcons at (482) New York Giants
Date/Time: Sep 26 2021 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: New York Giants -3.0 (-105)
D% Take the New York Giants (#482)
NOTE: No urgency to bet this right away – there’s a decent chance we’ll see -2.5’s before kickoff. I’ll grade the bet at -3 (obviously), but you might find better.
There’s a world of difference between the Giants and the Falcons right now; not reflected in this field goal pointspread. Here’s what I wrote about Atlanta last week, cashing a 5% Big Ticket betting against them:
“Experienced bettors know not to overreact to Week 1. That said, when Week 1 was exactly like the preseason, which was exactly like last year, bettors shouldn’t underreact either!
Atlanta was a bottom feeder in 2020, finishing with a 4-12 record. New head coach Arthur Smith’s preseason was even worse. The Falcons played starters in August – they tried. And they got bombed in all three games, losing 23-3, 37-17 and 19-10. Matt Ryan did not look comfortable in the new offense; the offensive line couldn’t protect him or open holes for any kind of a running game and, despite trailing from start to finish against the Eagles last week, the ‘unstoppable’ duo of Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley combined to catch eight passes for 82 yards, only eight of which came after the catch.
Defensively, this Falcons team has been a bottom feeder in every recent season, blown off the field again last week. Atlanta is a BOTTOM 5 NFL team right now, yet the betting markets are asking them to hang around against an elite team off a shoddy defensive showing with extra time to prepare. I’m not buying that argument.”
I know the Giants aren’t an elite team, but they ARE a talented and desperate team; playing for their season right here in Week 3. They too, like Tampa Bay last week, are coming off a shoddy defensive showing with extra time to prepare, off their devastating last second loss to Washington. This Giants team has weapons. They’re hungry. The defense has talent; far better than what we saw with a limited gameplan on a short week last Thursday. I expect it to show up here in a ‘win or go home’ kind of week for the coaching staff; a very different level of tension and urgency in Atlanta under first year head coach Arthur Smith.
Atlanta’s defense was badly outclassed in Tampa last week, with Tom Brady leading the Bucs on five relatively easy touchdown drives. The Falcons offensive line failed under pressure, leading to a pair of Matt Ryan pick six’s. And this team didn’t have all that much fight in them by the fourth quarter after fighting from a big deficit earlier. There’s a defensive class difference here, and quite possibly an offensive one too. Expect a win by margin. Take the Giants
Line Parameter: 4% at -3 or lower, 3% at -3.5 or higher

Game: (495) Green Bay Packers at (496) San Francisco 49ers
Date/Time: Sep 26 2021 8:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C units
Play: Total Over 50.0 (-110)
C% Take Green Bay – San Francisco OVER (#495-496)
These two teams have met four times since 2018. The winner has scored 33+ in every game, and three of the four got into the 50’s and 60’s. And there’s little reason to expect a defensive scrum here, especially given the early season domination of Over bets on Sunday and Monday Night TV games (100% to the Over through the first two weeks).
Even off a subpar showing in Philly last week, and despite a cluster injury problem at running back, this 49ers offense is primed to put up points. Jimmy G still has plenty of weapons – let’s not forget how the Deebo Samuel/George Kittle pass catching duo combined for more than 260 receiving yards between them in Week 1; one big play after the next. And the Niners offensive line has given Garoppolo time throw, with balance -- they’ve rushed for 117 and 131 in the first two games, at least one of which came against a decent defense.
Green Bay found their offensive footing last week after a Week 1 debacle. Remember – Aaron Rodgers spent the offseason filming State Farm commercials and hosting Jeopardy – unlike, say, Tom Brady, he wasn’t working out with his receivers. And, after not seeing preseason time, I’m not shocked at all that it took Rodgers and the offense a little while to get going. That said, we know how potent and balanced this offense is as well, tough to stop when Rodgers is clicking.
Both defenses are vulnerable here. San Fran just lost their best cover corner, Jason Verritt to a season ending injury. CB Emmanuel Moseley, LB Dre Greenlaw is on IR, DL Kevin Givens is out, DL Arik Armstead and DT Javon Kinlaw are all banged up already. They just signed Josh Norman as an emergency replacement in their secondary, but HE got hurt last week, along with fellow cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. That’s a lot of defensive talent! Green Bay too, has some cluster injury issues at safety, and the 49ers offensive line they’ll face this week is head and shoulders better than the Lions offensive line that they dominated in the second half last week. Expect fireworks! Take the OVER.
Line Parameter: 3% at 51 or lower, 2% at 51.5 or higher